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Test - Glass to capacity and demand to improve the parallel

Published:2015/10/8

1, 2015 in the first half of the glass spot price trend is weak pattern; because the downstream market demand reduction, to the production process is slow, while environmental pressures increase, spot prices continue to lower, the production of poor efficiency.

2, glass manufacturing industry gross margin continued to maintain the downward, the growth rate of production capacity continues to grow, the supply is reduced, while the demand for the same supply is less obvious, the price continues to move down. With the increase in the capacity of central and southwestern regions, the future price of depression will gradually shift to central china.

3, real estate sales data continue to improve, real estate stocks began to decline, the fourth quarter real estate investment data may appear slightly improved, the demand is probably better than in the first half, the second half of the supply and demand side or good in the first half.

4, the Federal Reserve in advance whether to raise interest rates and the RRR cut interest rates, real estate tax, real estate registration and other related policies is still the market risk, at the same time, the futures of plant library rise premium adjustment will bring a greater impact on the market.

5, glass industry to maintain production cycle, investors or the presence of part of the production enterprises to withdraw, and in view of the real estate showing signs of improvement, we believe that the price of glass or in the third quarter will continue bottoming in the fourth quarter or there is likely to rebound slightly.

Shahe area spot prices in the first half of the overall presents the first after suppression Yonge your bureau. At the end of January began prices began to show upward, four or five in Shahe area prices rally, such as rainbow, outshine the rest. June after the price difference between the price difference and the northern region to enter the rainy season and other factors, the price began to change dramatically, a sharp dive in the short term. Overall Shahe glass spot is still in recent years, the lower level.

Central China region in 2015 increased production capacity, coupled with a decrease in market demand, the impact of the more rain, the market price in the middle of April after the rapid decline in May after the price rise, the current stalemate. The largest decline, down 13.42% compared with the beginning of the whole, do not rule out the possibility of dropping again.

Southern China area spot prices in the overall consumer demand is less than expected, processing business orders less than expected, the tension, the spot price of the way down, almost reached the lowest point in history, compared with the beginning of the overall decline of 9.6%.

This year, the glass prices overall show a wide pattern of shocks, the interval overall maintenance since the 880, 980, may glass futures fund buying effect in rally is fierce but to enter the June, selling merchandise on hand to reduce the impact, 09 contract period all the way down the price, but not did not hit a new low, while volume rendering with a narrow range of fluctuation pattern, is expected to short-term volatility in the air.

2015 in the first half of the overall inventory of glass production companies to show up the pattern, the overall change in the year on year growth in stock is not much. Real capacity growth to maintain negative growth, the growth rate remained small fluctuations, the current is about 5.5%. Despite the capacity to stage, but the actual process to slow production capacity.

The overall change in the region's inventory is not a, relatively speaking, the Hebei area of the first increase in inventory after the reduction, compared with last year, the change is not big. East China region as a whole showed a slight upward, the total inventory of Southern China first fell sharply, followed by a decrease in consumer demand, processing business orders less than expected, the tension, the library has decreased. Central China in capacity increase, also rainy season affected the library led to a substantial increase in production and business inventories, the biggest increase. Overall, the production of enterprise inventory has increased compared with the beginning of the current to maintain high.